Tuesday, May 19, 2009

Eastern Conference Finals Preview



Are the Cavs still playing? It seems like forever ago they swept the Hawks. So we have the Orlando Magic vs the Cleveland Cavaliers. This features two superstars and their respective teammates chosen very wisely to play along Lebron and Dwight. The Cavs come into this series having gone 8-0 and looked extremely impressive doing so. They easily took work of the pathetic Pistons and then bashed the Hawks. The one thing that worries me is the fact that they haven't really been challenged at all. Yes they have played fantastic, but the fact was their two opponents just weren't great teams. So it will be very interesting too see how the Cavs deal with adversity and have to pull out a game down the stretch. If you look at the regular season it really wasn't very close at all, with the Magic dominating in 2 of the games and had a very good chance to win the game in Cleveland. If the Magic play like they did vs Boston in games 6 and games 7 this will be a much closer series than people think. With that said here the keys for both teams.
Magic Keys:
  • Momentum - The Magic won 2 huge games against the defending champs and 1 game on the road for game 7. This was huge for many reasons, but it is especially important to carry that momentum into game 1 of this series. The Cavs haven't played in over a week and Orlando just came off of its most emotional win of the season. If there is a game to steal in Cleveland its game 1. They must use those 2 games to fuel them to victory in game 1. If they let Cleveland come out strong, the Cavs may be too difficult to come back against.
  • Dwight Howard - This one is obvious, but defensively Howard has to play BIG, literally and figuratively. He has to deter Lebron from the basket and force him to pass or pull up for a jumper. If Dwight can guard the basket and avoid foul trouble Lebron's strongest part of his game is taken away. Also Howard has to be a monster on the glass and punish Ilgauskas. As much as Howard can change the game offensively, in this series his defense is more important for the Magic then his offense.The Defensive Player of the Year has to act like it in order for the Magic to have a chance to win.
  • Point Guard Play - The Magic point guards during the Celtics series never really showed up at all. In the regular series battles with the Cavs, Rafer Alston and Anthony Johnson played a big role in those games. You must use Ilgauskas in pick and roll situations at all costs. He is a big liability playing the pick and roll. Also Mo Williams isn't the best pick and roll defender as well. Alston has to play very big in this series for the Magic to win.
Cavs Keys:
  • 3 Point Defense - The Cavaliers were the #1 team in the NBA in guarding the 3 point shot this year and the Magic shoot the most 3's of any playoff team. They average 22.5 3 point shot attempts per game. During the regular season vs the Magic the 3 point shot absolutely killed Cleveland. They have to be able to play Dwight Howard straight up and stay home on the Magic's shooters. Lebron should be able to neutralize Hedo, but the other Cavs especially Varejao have to stay home on Rashard Lewis or else he may get torched. I am curious to see what lineup Coach Mike Brown will use to stop Lewis.
  • Delonte West - This is a very important match up for the Cavs. All of the other positions in this series clearly expose a disadvantage for both teams. The Cavs have the upper hand at the point guard position and small forward position. While the Magic have the advantage in the Power Forward position and Center position. Delonte West is the wild card. He played a fantastic series vs the Hawks in round 2. He has to hit open shots and get into the lane. The Magic will counter with JJ Redick and Courtney Lee. If West can outplay those 2 players that becomes a huge advantage for Cleveland.
  • 1 on 1 vs Howard - This is a must for the Cavs to win this series. If they can use Ilgauskas and Wallace to guard Howard 1 on 1 and stay home on the Magic shooters, they will win this series hands down. If Howard starts to dominate and get the Cavs bigs in foul trouble they may have to double and free up the Magics great shooters. Stan Van Gundy is going to have to be creative and free up his shooters and put Dwight in great situations for him to be successful. This is going to be a very important aspect for both teams.
After reviewing both teams and analyzing this series its actually a lot closer than people may think. All of the media types and "pundits" feel this is a no brainer, Cavs in 5 or 6 at the most. I feel every game will be extremely competitive and give us great games to watch. The Cavs have yet to be tested and will need to step it up down the stretch to compete with the Magic. The Magic are coming off a very tight, physical series vs the Celtics and that actually gives them a slight advantage coming into this series. But when its all said and done the Cavs have Lebron James and I think his aggression and ability will carry the Cavs past the Magic in 7.


Prediction - Cavs 4 - Magic 3




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