Western Conference Finals Preview

Who would've thought the Denver Nuggets would be the team that has cruised to the conference finals and are considered by many to be the favorites? Because I certainly did not anticipate this happening and nor do I like it one bit. No matter how I feel, the western conference finals are upon us. The Nuggets come rolling in posting an 8-2 record so far in the playoffs, while the Lakers come in with a humbling 8-4 record. The Nuggets easily dismantled the Hornets and the Mavs, while the Lakers cruised passed the Jazz and got pushed to the brink by the Rockets. And no matter how well the Nuggets are playing, this series is going to be determined by which Laker team shows up. The Lakers are the superior team and with maximum effort and focus they should prevail, but that has been a problem thus far. I've seen Denver at their absolute best and I still do not feel that will be enough IF the Lakers stay committed to defense and stay focused throughout. Here are the keys to victory for both teams:
Denver Keys:

• Easy Baskets - This is of course a key for any team, but especially for the Nuggets in this series. If they fall in love with the 3 point shot and outside jumper they will lose this series. The Nuggets are at their best when they get out in transition and score at will. They are one of the best teams in the league at creating points off of turnovers with the notorious cherry picker Melo and JR Smith pushing the break. Also Nene and K-Mart are going to have to dominate the paint. When Kenyon falls in love with his jumper it really will hurt the Nuggets and he needs to attack at will. The Lakers are going to clog the paint and force Carmelo to take contested jumpers, like he did all year vs the Lakers (14.5 ppg during the regular season vs the Lakers). More on that next.
• Carmelo Anthony - During the season Melo really struggled vs the Lakers length, I mean REALLY struggled. His averages in the 4 games vs the Lakers are 14.5 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 7.8 rpg and shot a miserable 32.8% from the field. He really needs to find his groove and have more patience instead of pulling up from the elbow so early in the shot clock. With Billups now running the show, Carmelo can afford to be more patient and take what the defense gives him. If Melo plays like he did vs the Lakers during the regular season the Nuggets have no chance to win this series.
• Stay Composed - The Denver Nuggets have a lot players and coaches on their teams that have a history of imploding when it really matters. It ultimately starts with George Karl, the head coach. He has a history of being out-coached in big playoff series and especially against Phil Jackson. Karl needs to look to his team for leadership and only one player comes to mind and that's Chauncey Billups. Billups has a championship pedigree that he needs to instill into teammates during this series. He has beat Kobe Bryant and Phil Jackson before and don't think he wont use that to get his team to believe. If the likes of K-Mart, Melo, JR Smith and Nene can all stay in control and out of trouble the Nuggets likelihood of winning this series increases quite a bit.

Lakers Keys:

• Andrew Bynum - I really hate having to say this again, but he really is a major key to this series. If Bynum's hands and feet were as active as they were in game 7, the Lakers should win this series hands down. Bynum is truly the key defensively for the Lakers. If he can stop roaming the paint and just commit to staying between the basket and the ball, the Lakers defense goes from average at best to elite. Bynum has to be the anchor of the defense and altar any shot that comes near the rim. On offense he just needs to be active on the glass and ready for put backs. Nene will be a very difficult task for Bynum and hopefully Bynum isn't afraid to push back.
• Lakers Coaching Staff - In the series vs the Rockets I thought the coaching staff did not do a great job of preparing the Lakers. Also a big problem was Phil Jackson's poor substitutions for a lot of the series. Hopefully his stubbornness to leave Derek Fisher in most of the games will help payoff vs the Nuggets. When Phil left him in so long vs the Rockets, it almost cost the Lakers the series. Another big issue I had with the series was keeping Kobe on the bench to start the 4th quarter. This is especially bothered me when we cut the lead to 9 in game 6 at the end of the 3rd quarter and Phil left Kobe on the bench and let Sasha flounder out there. The lead ballooned up to 14 points and the game was out of hand. Kobe did not come in till the 6 minute mark. Phil rested Kobe all year, so he can play in these moments. Its the western conference finals, play Kobe as much as possible. The adjustments must be made in order for the Lakers to prevail.
• Stay Focused Please! - This one is easy, just stay focused and committed defensively. I know that sounds silly to say to a team in the western conference finals, but it really is true for this team. The Lakers have so much talent, that if they can acheive maximum effort they will win. The big, big problem is at times this team can fall asleep and blow games. Hopefully the Rockets series was just a match up issue, but this needs to stop and needs to stop now.

With all of that said this will be an excellent series. Denver is playing at a very high level and could easily knock off the #1 seed. Unfortunately for Denver its up to the Lakers to see who prevails in this series. If the Lakers can show emotion out their and out hustle the Nuggets they will win this series, no questions asked. My prediction is this is going to be a very entertaining series, with a few skirmishes thrown in the middle as well. The Lakers will gain their rhythm and win the first 2 games in LA. The Nuggets backed by the emotions of their crowd will win the next 2 at home to tie the series. Lakers come home to take game 5 and finish off the Nuggets on the road in 6.

Prediction - Lakers 4 - Nuggets 2